Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Polarizer In Chief

From Amy Walter at the National Journal:

Despite calls for a "post-partisan" presidency, a recen">Pew Research Centa> study found that President Obama has the most polarized early job approval ratings for a new president in 40 years.The 61-point gap in opinion is driven by almost universal support from his party (Democrats give him an 88 percent approval rating) and very low approval ratings (27 percent) from Republicans.

In comparison, President Bush had a 51-point gap in April 2001 (he had higher approval ratings among Democrats than Obama has among Republicans), while President Clinton had a 45-point gap in April 1993 (his support among Democrats wasn't as strong as Obama's, though he had the same approval ratings among Republicans). . . .

When we talk about bipartisanship, we're really talking about how well a president and his party are doing among those who are not aligned with a party. How Obama and the Democrats are faring with independents will tell us more than Obama's support among Republicans about how much success his party is enjoying at the legislative and electoral level.

At first glance, Obama's job approval ratings among independents have stayed consistent over the last three months, between 67 percent and 63 percent. But those who said they "strongly" approved of the job he was doing dropped 13 points between the end of January and the end of March. Obama carried independent voters in November by 52 percent to 44 percent.

Also interesting to note is the fact that independents have started to drift away from congressional Democrats as well. From the beginning of March to the end of the month, the approval ratings of congressional Democrats among independent voters dropped 10 points, from 48 percent to 38 percent. Same goes for the generic ballot test. In our most recent poll, independents gave a slight edge to Republicans (26 percent to 23 percent) -- a 6-point drop for Democrats since early March.

At this point, independent voters are showing signs of disenchantment with the Democrats, but Republicans still need to give them a reason to support them and their policies.

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